Tokyo, 04 August 2022

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the global platform of the leading gas producing countries recently participated in the annual International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) Conference, which brought together energy economists, policymakers, and business executives from across the world.

2022 IAEE conference was organized by Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) in partnership with the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), in a hybrid format in Tokyo, Japan from 31 July - 4 August 2022.

On 2 August, the GECF participated in a roundtable discussion on energy transition and the role of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels were discussed from financial, decarbonization, and policy angles. Mustafa Amer, a researcher at the GECF, presented on the theme of Energy Transition and the Role of Natural Gas. In his presentation, Mr Amer discussed the growing role of natural gas by mid-century based on the latest edition of the GECF Global Gas Outlook, the role of the financial sector in ensuring an adequate supply of energy, the role of carbon removal technologies in the climate agenda, and the future of energy demand in the IPCC assessed scenarios. Mr Amer concluded that "even in Paris-aligned scenarios, natural gas will remain in demand in all regions of the world. The financial sector should maintain responsible financing for energy supply projects while the demand side; with its policies, priorities, and technologies, determines which energy mix to adopt".

In another presentation, Seyed Mohsen Razavi, Energy Technology Analyst, presented his paper on “The Role of Hydrogen in Achieving Carbon Neutrality”, in which he explained how hydrogen would contribute to global carbon neutrality by penetrating hard-to-electrify sectors. In his presentation, Mr Razavi elaborated on the exclusive role of hydrogen and the potential of CO2 abatement through its development. He indicated that hydrogen is not the only measure but is unique for particular sectors. According to his paper, natural gas coupled with CCS and renewable power are among the most potent and reliable sources to decarbonise the energy system in terms of the volume of mitigation potential.

Galia Fazeliyanova, Energy Economics Analyst, presented a study on the “Future of LNG market: shortage or oversupply?”, and noted that limited LNG supply growth through to 2026 as a result of limited FIDs and delays to projects under construction – from now until 2026 - will intensify competition between Asia and Europe for uncontracted LNG. Europe, once “the market of last resort” will compete for LNG with Asia, but imports will only increase substantially post 2026 as more supply is available.

At the Natural Gas Session on 3 August, the GECF’s Senior Energy Forecast Analyst, Dr Hussein Moghaddam, presented the results of his study on “The role of natural gas in mitigating GHG emissions: The environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for the major gas producing countries”, and noted that as natural gas is the lowest-carbon hydrocarbon compared to other fossil fuels, substituting gas with oil and coal would reduce the speed and slope of CO2 emissions. Furthermore, he opined that investment in technologies to prevent emissions from the entire gas value chain as well as in investment in CCS technology is necessary for the gas industry.

Dr Alexander Ermakov, Energy Econometrician, presented the study in the same session, entitled “Natural gas in the transition to low-carbon transport systems: focus on marine bunkering and NGVs”. This paper summarises the environmental advantages of natural gas use in transport modes, discusses supporting policy measures and regulatory frameworks and assesses how the outlook for natural gas in the road and marine transport will evolve over the long-term.